Foresee · user study

Thanks for helping.
This takes about 5 minutes.

I am testing two weather apps, not you. There are no wrong answers, and I really want your honest first reactions, the negative ones too.

Keep this in mind the whole time

You organised an outdoor football match for tomorrow at 10:00. Friends are waiting on your word, so you want to get the call right.

1You will look at weather apps on a phone. Some can be tapped to show more. Poke around like you would for real.

2After each one you make your call on the match, and tell us in your own words what you saw and what was clear or not.

3Six short steps in total. The open text boxes matter most, so just write whatever comes to mind.

no sign-up · your answers are anonymous

Step 1 of 6

About you

07:45

Likely dry for the morning, with a small chance of showers after noon.

21°feels 19°

9 km/hwind

0.2 mmrain

tap for the numbers

08 to 12dry, high confidence

12 to 14small shower chance

~80%

chance dry until 12:00

~55% easing by 14:00

Your 10:00 match sits comfortably inside the safe window.

where is this from?

Where this comes from

ALL AGREE

KNMI

ECMWF

SENSORS

0810:001214

dry showers unsure

All three agree on a dry morning. They only split after noon, which is exactly why I said "small chance".

Disagreement is the uncertainty. When the models line up on your window, you can trust the morning.

07:45

Showers are a coin-flip for the morning. Even the forecasts can't agree yet.

18°feels 16°

14 km/hwind

0–2.4 mmrain

tap for the numbers

08 to 10dry, fairly sure

10 to 14coin-flip, showers possible

~55%

chance dry at 10:00

±20% the forecasts span 35 to 75

Your 10:00 match sits inside the uncertain window. It could go either way.

why so unsure?

Why I say coin-flip

THEY SPLIT

KNMI

ECMWF

SENSORS

0810:001214

dry showers unsure

The three forecasts disagree across your whole window. When they split like this, no single number is honest.

Check back at 07:00. The sources usually line up a few hours ahead.

07:45

Amsterdam

Tomorrow

21°

Mostly sunny

H:22° L:13°

Rain · 10%

085%

095%

1010%

1110%

1215%

1315%

1420%

07:45

Amsterdam

Tomorrow

18°

Cloudy

H:19° L:12°

Rain · 40%

0820%

0925%

1040%

1140%

1245%

1345%

1440%

07:45

Showers are a coin-flip for the morning. Even the forecasts can't agree yet.

way 1 · words that fade

~55%

chance dry at 10:00

±20% the forecasts span 35 to 75

Your 10:00 match sits right in the uncertain zone. It could go either way.

way 2 · a number with a range

Three forecasts disagree

THEY SPLIT

KNMI

ECMWF

SENSORS

0810:001214

dry showers unsure

way 3 · the three sources

07:45

Likely dry for the morning, a small chance of showers after noon.

21°feels 19°

9 km/hwind

0.2 mmrain

version 1 · soft

Dry morning, showers possible after 12.

08101214

dry showers unsure

21°feels 19°

9 km/hwind

0.2 mmrain

version 2 · minimal

07:45

Likely dry for the morning, a small chance of showers after noon.

21°feels 19°

9 km/hwind

0.2 mmrain

version 1 · light

Likely dry for the morning, a small chance of showers after noon.

21°feels 19°

9 km/hwind

0.2 mmrain

version 2 · dark

07:45

Showers are a coin-flip after 10:00.

~55% chance dry, ±20

The three forecasts don't agree. Maybe wait and check again at 07:00 before you commit.

version 1 · with advice

Showers are a coin-flip after 10:00.

~55% chance dry, ±20

The morning is dry. After noon the sources split, so the chance of showers rises.

version 2 · just data

you can tap the screen to see more

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Results

Thanks for helping.This takes about 5 minutes.

That's it. Thank you.

Results

Thanks for helping.
This takes about 5 minutes.